Job Purpose
- The purpose of the role is to lead & drive the Demand Forecasting process to support the core commercial cycle (CCC) & supply chain operating model.
- Build the business demand forecast in line with commercial expectations challenging the inputs based on historical trends & underlying assumptions.
- Drive sustainable maturity levels of Demand review meetings (DRM)to support the business.
- Manage the Forecasting process to support East & West Africa commercial Ambitions and deliver the Forecasting KPIs related to accuracy and Bias.
- Management of Demand Planning systems (Power BI, JDE/SAP, ModCF) to ensure that data integrity and flow into supply systems is maintained
- Manage flow of information between Demand and Supply, Demand and Sales, and Demand and Finance
Key Responsibilities
- Manage end to end Demand forecasting volume & value for EWA business unit to improve sales forecast accuracy & bias.
- Quarterly generation of baseline statistical forecast using the APO system to support the monthly Sales & Operation Planning process according to defined deadlines.
- Quarterly generation of statistical forecasting, depletion with available data and sales history cleaning (outliers) with the CCC core team.
- Brand wise review & classification of demand & trends analysis for EWA markets
- Report KPI’s & conduct detailed root cause analysis and corrective action planning to understand sales forecast errors and bias performance KPI’s.
- Provide the detailed analysis of forecast trends and accuracy for local PRE-Demand/Demand review process.
- Develop a rolling 36 month forecast that ensures the business runs off an aligned, agreed and common set of numbers. Current Year/Current Year +1 & Current Year +2
- Lead and facilitate the consensus Pre-DRM & Demand Review Meeting (DRM) for the consolidated East & West Africa market.
- Interface with relevant category supply planners & other supply parties to provide input to the weekly demand control process.
- Provide detailed and timely analysis of historical trend and business performance as input to the Consensus Forecast Review process.
- Develop reports and presentations (Building blocks, charts, tables etc.) detailing past performance and predicted future outlook to support forecasting process and aid management in taking strategic business decisions.
- Perform SAP MODCF / APO / SNP system administration including new product setup, forecast data entry and validation.
- Coordinate with key stakeholders & commercial team to align orders with supply planners and place same in the ERP Systems (ESC, JDE,Export etc.) for East Africa & West Africa markets.
- Coordinate with commercial team, Finance, Supply Planning, logistics and export teams to ensure all orders are supplied and recorded as Sales in the system.
- Collaborate with core commercial team members & Central support team to resolve all issues relating to price setup, new SKU setup, new customer setup, MyPSR and all other related system issues
- Take ownership & Update all forecasting magic sheets / tools / files in preparation of forecasting cycles & meetings.
- Compute Forecast Accuracy, Bias, SKU count and all other KPIs and uploads same in team sites and required systems on time.
- Prepare meeting decks, slide presentations in readiness for Demand Review meetings
- Participate in the weekly demand & supply reviews with supply planners
- Collaborate with commercial teams to close gaps if required.
Accountability
- Provision of timely, detailed, accurate, transparent forecast reporting.
- Provide SAP MODCF / APO / SNP / ESC / JDE data maintenance and system administration.
- Own and maintain forecasting tools.
- Owner of online platform for sharing demand forecasting information, tools & resources.
- Support the EWA GM to take forecast decisions & sign off the DRM numbers.
- Contribute to the SLOBS process to ensure minimal write off on obsolete & slow movers actions.
- Participate in the weekly NPI calls & PMR calls & support the phasing in & phase out activities.
Complexity
- Reporting and analytical support for forecasting SKUs across
- All countries/markets within the region
- Incorporate Export markets appropriately
- Detailed forecast reporting across all forecast drivers:
- Statistical Baseline forecast
- Promotional forecast/uplifts
- New Product Introductions forecasts
- System expert for SAP MODCF / APO / SNP
- Ad hoc detailed forecast analysis
Specialized Skills And Knowledge
- Advanced level of Excel skills required.
- High attention to detail.
- Highly numerate with knowledge of supply chain forecasting / trade spend, ERP systems and processes preferred.
- Exposure to Demand forecasting and commercial sales / marketing operations in an FMCG environment.
- Qualification in Commerce & Marketing / Accounting/Business / supply chain related discipline, logistics, supply management, demand management, operational management desirable.
- Strong planning ability & able to work on own initiative.
- Strong interpersonal skills to influence the relevant stakeholders across the business functions.
- Proactively seeks opportunities to increase value by raising standards & championing best practices.
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